Optimism, while tempered, is up among finance leaders

CPA decision-makers are more optimistic about the U.S. economy and their own organizations in the first quarter of this year, according to the AICPA and CIMA Economic Outlook Survey.

Almost 40% of the 236 CEOs, CFOs, and controllers surveyed in February said they were optimistic about the U.S. economy over the next 12 months, up from 28% the previous quarter but still not on par with last year. Almost half of executives (47%) are optimistic about their own organization, up from 41%, and one-fourth are optimistic about the global economy, up from 22% at the end of 2025.

Optimists cite strong underlying economic fundamentals, anticipation of lower interest rates, and pro-growth policies as reasons for their outlook. Pessimists remain concerned about tariffs, unemployment, and political uncertainty.

Revenue and profit projections also increased, according to survey results released Thursday. Revenue is expected to rise 2.9% in the coming 12 months, up from 2% last quarter. Profits are expected to rise 1.6%, up from 0.8% last quarter.

Tom Hood, CPA/CITP, CGMA, executive vice president–Business Engagement & Growth at the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants, the alliance formed by the AICPA and CIMA, said in a news release: “Business leaders are feeling a renewed sense of optimism this quarter, both about the U.S. economy and the near-term prospects for their own organizations. While economic conditions, workforce costs, and input prices remain key areas of focus, we’re encouraged to see inflation pressures easing earlier in the quarter.”

Domestic economic conditions are the top challenge facing companies, followed by employee and benefits costs and materials, supplies, and equipment costs. Domestic political leadership fell one spot to fourth, followed by inflation.

About 56% of respondents are concerned about inflation over the next six months. Only 6% are concerned about deflation.

Other findings in the survey:

Expansion and hiring. Expected business growth is up, rising from 48% to 55% of respondents who say they expect to expand their businesses. About one-third of executives said they have too few employees, and 11% said they have too many — both numbers in line with the previous quarter.

Spending plans. Expected spending on IT and other capital remained steady, and projected spending on training and development rose from 1% to 1.7%.

Recession worries. The percentage of respondents who foresee a recession in the coming year or believe the United States is already in a recession dropped from 52% last quarter to 36% this quarter.

— To comment on this article or to suggest an idea for another article, contact Kevin Brewer at Kevin.Brewer@aicpa-cima.com.