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Exhibit 4: Present Value Adjusted for Uncertainty for Asset F
  Cash flow Probability Probability-
adjusted
cash flow 		Discount factor 6% Present value
Year 1

Adjustment to reflect risk premium.

$8,000
$10,000 		0.10
0.90 		$ 800
9,000
$9,800
(1,400)
$8,400 		0.943 $7,921
Year 2 $7,000
$10,000 		0.15
0.85 		$1,050
8,500
$9,550 		0.890 $8,500
Year 3 $7,000
$10,000 		0.20
0.80 		$1,400
8,000
$9,400 		0.840 $7,896
Year 4 $6,500
$10,000 		0.23
0.77 		$1,495
7,700
$9,195 		0.792 $7,282
Year 5 $6,000
$10,000 		0.25
0.75 		$1,500
7,500
$9,000 		0.747 $6,723
Year 6 $ 5,000

$10,000 		0.30
0.70 		$ 1,500
7,000
$ 8,500 		0.705 $ 5,992
Total     $54,045   $44,314
 

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